• After a tough 2019, this article does a good job running down whats changed and what has driven the stock up 36% the past two days. Reasons cited include:
  • After perpetually burning cash, the company reported positive free cash flow of $1 billion and 2nd straight positive net income in the 4Q.  Also notable in the quarter is deliveries were up 50%, sales up 13% and with the opening of the factory in Shanghai and another coming in Europe, the company is well positioned.
  • Short squeeze is also part of the story.  Although we'd note that with 4.8% of outstanding float being short, that's not a high level.
  • Obviously the big counter argument at this point is valuation as illustrated by downgrade from Canaccord this morning.
  • Stock is down 13% today.
  • Well done article that goes through the shifting views the past ten years of 20 and 30 year old somethings towards working for big tech compared amid the growing ethical issues of privacy violations, sexual harassment, etc., and in the case of Palantir providing tech services to ICE.
  • Great lines from article equates working for big tech is like working in "investment banking but worse" and the acceptance rate of job offers at Facebook have dropped to 40% (disputed by FB).
  • It will be interesting to track these types of trends when the economy moves into the next recession.
  • Run down of the American Economic Association Annual Meeting in San Diego last weekend.
  • Despite being in the midst of a record economic expansion, the unemployment rate at a 50 year low and rising wages, consensus view of economists is caution.
  • Concerns relate to the current economic expansion being built on a combination of high deficits and low interest rates, leaving central bankers with fewer options when the next recession hits.  Trade wars and economic policy miscues also loom.
  • The article gives a range of thoughtful views from prominent economists, with few answers, making it evident that the study of economics is not an exact science.  But many are concerned with developed country economies falling into a Japan like scenario with low inflation, interests rates and growth.
  • Ben Bernanke expressed confidence that central banks would be able to combat the next recession, although use of the balance sheets will be more important to supplement the impact of lowering interest rates.
     
  • Interesting run down of where to put your money based on 2020 election winner.
  • Trump: Advisors recommend a basket of oil exploration, banks and aerospace space tied to continued economic growth, rising yet low interest rates, high military spending and less environmental regulations.
  • Warren/Sanders: Bigger government and higher taxes not good for stocks in general, but child care providers like Bright Horizons and green energy providers like Brookfield Renewable Partners may benefit. While big banks and healthcare service companies would be at risk.
  • Impact of Biden and Buttigieg is unclear.